Population: Settlement, Migration, Urbanization, Ageing, Refugees, and Displaced Population in Nepal
Summary
Population is a dynamic and multidimensional subject central to a country’s policymaking. It serves as both the driver and user of development, acting as producer and consumer. Nepal’s Constitution assigns population management responsibilities to federal, provincial, and local governments. Key policies like the Long-term Population Plan (2067-2087), National Population Policy 2081, Sustainable Development Goals (2016-2030), and the 16th Plan (2081/82-2085/86) guide population and development efforts. Nepal’s population growth rate is 0.92%, with 62% active workforce (demographic dividend), 66.08% urban population, and approximately 1,900 youths migrating daily for foreign employment. Declining fertility rates, increasing life expectancy, youth migration, and a growing elderly population highlight the need to leverage the active workforce for economic, social, cultural, environmental, and technological development while managing unplanned migration and urbanization.
Population
Population refers to the group of individuals or families residing within a country’s defined boundaries at a specific time. It is a critical state element, serving as both a resource for and driver of development. Effective population management enhances development opportunities, while its absence burdens the nation. The population encapsulates a country’s past, present, and future, with elderly citizens offering experience, youth providing energy, and children representing future potential.
Nepal’s Population Status (2078 Census)
- Motto: "My Census, My Participation"
- Total Population: 29,164,578 (48.98% male, 51.02% female)
- Sex Ratio: 95.59 males per 100 females
- Annual Growth Rate: 0.92%
- Population Density: 198 persons per sq. km
- Urban Population: 66.2%
- Rural Population: 33.8%
- Highest Density District: Kathmandu (5,169 persons per sq. km)
- Lowest Density District: Manang (3 persons per sq. km)
Population Distribution
Population distribution in Nepal varies based on geography and provincial structures, influenced by terrain, resources, and facilities.
Geographical Distribution
| Region | Population (%) | Area (%) | Districts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Himalayan | 6.08 | 15 | 21 |
| Hill | 40.31 | 68 | 35 |
| Terai | 53.61 | 17 | 21 |
Provincial Distribution
| Province | Districts | Area (%) | Population (%) | Density (persons/sq. km) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koshi | 14 | 17.6 | 17.01 | 192 |
| Madhesh | 8 | 6.66 | 20.96 | 633 |
| Bagmati | 13 | 13.79 | 20.97 | 301 |
| Gandaki | 11 | 14.83 | 8.46 | 115 |
| Lumbini | 12 | 13.41 | 17.56 | 230 |
| Karnali | 10 | 20.53 | 5.79 | 60 |
| Sudurpashchim | 9 | 13.27 | 9.24 | 138 |
Population Management
Population management involves planning, organizing, controlling, and directing the population in political, economic, social, cultural, and environmental contexts to ensure sustainable use. It balances population with resources and is crucial for economic, human, and technological power.
Characteristics of Nepal’s Population
- Demographic Dividend (15-59 years: 61.96%)
- Increasing elderly population
- Declining fertility and high infant/maternal mortality
- Relatively low life expectancy
- Gender inequality
- Unplanned internal migration
- Uneven geographical distribution
Importance of Population Management
- Balancing development, environment, and population distribution
- Planning sustainable development
- Maximizing workforce utilization
- Maintaining accurate vital records (birth, death, migration, marriage, divorce)
- Relocating risky settlements to safer, integrated systems
- Aligning infrastructure with population structure
- Optimizing natural resources
- Promoting population education and control programs
- Achieving economic growth and prosperity
- Reducing poverty, unemployment, and inequality
Opportunities for Population Management
- Constitutional recognition of reproductive rights as fundamental
- National Population Policy 2071 in implementation
- Sustainable Development Goals prioritizing poverty, hunger, and health
- 16th Plan emphasizing population and human resource management
- Population education in school curricula
- Demographic dividend (62% active workforce until 2040)
- Expansion of health services and family planning
- Increasing women’s education and employment
- Growing awareness of small, happy families
Causes of Population Growth in Nepal
- Poverty (more hands, more work, more income)
- Child marriage and polygamy
- Joint family systems easing child-rearing
- Higher birth rates compared to death rates
- Religious/social beliefs (desire for sons)
- Lack of education and awareness
- Shortage of family planning resources
- Neglect of family planning methods
- Increased refugee inflow
- Ineffective population policies
- Ignorance or misconceptions about abortion
- Open borders and rising migration
Reasons for Declining Population Growth Rate (2078 Census)
- Youth migration for employment and education
- Increased women’s employment reducing birth rates
- Rising education and awareness
- Legalization of abortion
- Increasing late marriages
- Decline in child marriage, polygamy, and gender discrimination
- Lower infant/child mortality reducing need for more children
- Government awareness programs
- High costs of education and healthcare
Impacts of Population Growth
Positive Impacts
- Strengthens state-building
- Maximizes resource utilization
- Accelerates development activities
- Ensures skilled workforce availability
- Supports skill, capital, and technology development
- Promotes innovation and economic activities
Negative Impacts
- Increased poverty, unemployment, and inequality
- Overexploitation of resources
- Pressure on public services
- Unplanned settlement and urbanization
- Rising social insecurity and crime
- Environmental pollution
- Increased dependent population
- Food scarcity and malnutrition
Population Control Measures
- Formulate and implement effective population policies
- Integrate population education in curricula
- Promote and provide free family planning resources
- Raise awareness on reproductive and child health
- Promote the concept of small, happy families
- Enforce strict border regulations
- Reduce refugees through diplomatic efforts
- Control migration trends
- Eliminate social evils and superstitions
Challenges in Population Management
- Lack of integration of population programs across sectors
- Economic backwardness, illiteracy, and patriarchal mindset
- Youth migration impacting agriculture and productivity
- Skewed age and gender ratios in rural areas
- Lack of structures to engage displaced populations
- High fertility and poor reproductive health outcomes
- Unmanaged urbanization due to migration
- Lack of coordination among stakeholders
- Inadequate elderly healthcare and support
- Lack of timely, reliable demographic data
- Inability to provide jobs for 500,000 annual labor market entrants
Migration
Migration is the process of people leaving their place of residence for another due to political, economic, social, cultural, or environmental reasons. It significantly impacts population patterns, structure, and growth.
Types of Migration
Internal Migration
- Local Migration: Village to city, village to village, city to city, city to village.
- Inter-provincial Migration: Himalayan to hill, hill to Terai, province to province.
International Migration
- Emigration: Leaving one’s country (e.g., Nepalis moving to the USA).
- Immigration: Entering another country (e.g., Indians or Bhutanese refugees in Nepal).
Causes of Migration
Push Factors
- Political: Conflict, threats, instability, insecurity.
- Economic: Unemployment, lack of markets, infrastructure.
- Social: Lack of education, health, water, sanitation.
- Natural: Landslides, earthquakes, floods, desertification.
- Environmental: Pollution, waste management issues, deforestation, climate change.
- Other: Population growth, service delivery issues, food scarcity, rural hardships.
Pull Factors
- Economic: Job opportunities, trade, industries.
- Social: Quality education, health, water, sanitation, reduced discrimination.
- Natural: Lower risk of disasters.
- Political: Peace, security, political freedom.
- Infrastructure: Roads, transport, electricity, communication.
- Other: Quality lifestyle, technology, innovation.
Impacts of Migration
At Origin
| Positive Impacts | Negative Impacts |
|---|---|
|
|
At Destination
| Positive Impacts | Negative Impacts |
|---|---|
|
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Measures to Manage Migration
- Formulate migration policies
- Ban unplanned urbanization
- Control open borders
- Decentralize industries and opportunities
- Discourage unnecessary inter-provincial migration
- Implement decentralized governance
- Expand service delivery points
- Adopt safe, integrated settlement policies
Migration Trends in Nepal
- Himalayan to hill and Terai
- Hill to Terai (significant since 9th census)
- Rural to urban migration
- Urban population: 66.2%, rural: 33.8%
Urbanization
Urban Areas
Urban areas provide access to facilities like roads, transport, electricity, water, sanitation, communication, entertainment, and quality healthcare. They are engines of economic growth, cradles of civilization, and indicators of development. SDG Goal 11 emphasizes sustainable cities and communities. Kathmandu and Bhaktapur are Nepal’s only districts without rural municipalities.
Urbanization
Urbanization refers to the expansion of urban areas and the increase in urban population, driven by changes in values, lifestyles, and infrastructure. It involves transforming villages into towns and towns into cities. Nepal currently has 6 metropolitan cities, 11 sub-metropolitan cities, and 276 municipalities.
Urban Population Statistics
- Urban Population: 27.07%
- Urbanizing Population: 39.75%
- Rural Population: 33.19%
- 10 Years Ago: 22.31% urban, 39.19% urbanizing, 38.5% rural
Urban Classification (Local Government Operation Act 2074)
| Criteria | Metropolitan City | Sub-Metropolitan City | Municipality |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 500,000 | 200,000 | Himalayan: 10,000 Hill: 40,000 Inner Madhesh: 50,000 Terai: 75,000 Kathmandu Valley: 100,000 |
| Revenue (5-year avg.) | 1 billion NPR | 250 million NPR | Himalayan: 10 million NPR Others: 30 million NPR |
| Hospital | Specialist services, 500 beds | 100 beds | 25 beds |
| Roads | 75% paved | Main roads paved | Road facilities |
| Other Facilities | Bus park with terminal, parking, subways, shopping malls, international conference halls | Conference halls, waste processing, electricity, water, communication, national stadium | Open spaces, waste management, landfills, public toilets, cremation sites, master plans |
Causes of Rapid Urbanization in Nepal
- Government policy on municipality declarations
- Attraction to modern urban lifestyles
- Urban areas as economic growth drivers
- Improved education, health, and entertainment services
- Rural poverty driving urban opportunity-seeking
- Neglect of rural development
- Urban job opportunities
- Development of urban infrastructure (roads, electricity, water, communication)
- Easy access to services
- Business expansion opportunities
- Peace and security
- Lower disaster risks
- Rapid population growth
- Unplanned migration
- Rapid industrialization
Impacts of Urbanization
Positive Impacts
- Economic opportunities
- Job and self-employment opportunities
- Quality infrastructure (roads, transport, electricity)
- Social infrastructure (education, health, water, sanitation)
- Shift from agriculture to non-agricultural jobs
- Political freedom
- Rapid industrialization and mechanization
- Peace and security
- Entrepreneurship development
- Skilled workforce availability
- Innovation, capital, and technology development
- Recreational facilities (parks, theaters)
- Lower disaster risks
Negative Impacts
- Job scarcity and competition
- Pressure on education, health, water, sanitation
- Infrastructure strain
- Rising crime (theft, violence, robbery)
- Land fragmentation and agricultural land conversion
- Rural labor shortages
- Encroachment of public land
- Environmental pollution
- Resource overexploitation
- Inflation and black-market activities
- Noise, congestion, stress
- Emerging epidemics
- Challenges in green space and waste management
Challenges of Urbanization in Nepal
- Politically motivated municipality declarations
- Many municipalities remain rural or urbanizing (39%)
- Lack of tiered urban system planning
- Failure to meet urban standards
- Poor coordination among agencies
- Lack of disaster management in urban planning
- Inadequate urban facilities and quality
- Kathmandu-centric urbanization
- Neglect of provincial cities
- Infrastructure deficits
- Weak urban governance and revenue systems
- Poor green space and waste management
- Environmental pollution
- Traffic management issues
- Inability to widen structures
- Poor conservation of historical sites
- Weak enforcement of building codes
Opportunities and Challenges of Urbanization
Challenges
- Developing planned, sustainable cities
- Ensuring environmental improvements
- Mandating inter-agency coordination
- Securing large-scale investments
- Protecting cities from disaster risks
Opportunities
- Urban development prioritized by government and donors
- Private sector interest in infrastructure
- Potential for modern, planned cities
- Urban development along highways and proposed railways
- Experience in integrated land use planning
- Adoption of smart city concepts
Measures to Manage Urbanization
- Strengthen urban-rural linkages
- Expand inter-provincial road networks
- Establish smart cities along highways
- Promote "One City, One Identity"
- Adopt urban housing and settlement policies
- Decentralize services and opportunities
- Prevent public land encroachment
- Promote green city concepts (parks, green roads)
- Develop basic urban services and infrastructure
- Enhance government-private-local collaboration
- Promote corporate social responsibility for environmental protection
- Ensure proper waste management
- Reduce environmental pollution
- Maintain at least 30% open spaces
- Locate industries away from settlements
- Increase public service delivery points
16th Plan on Urban Development
- Planned, sustainable, resilient urbanization and settlement development
- Quality infrastructure and connectivity
Conclusion on Urbanization
Urbanization is a 21st-century demand driven by globalization, modernization, and smart city concepts. SDG Goal 11 emphasizes sustainable cities. Nepal’s 66.2% urban population is set to grow, straining infrastructure. Future cities must be modern, tech-friendly, spacious, and green, with robust water, sanitation, waste management, transport, and energy systems. Balancing supply and demand, securing investments, and ensuring urban governance and land management are critical for successful urbanization.
Ageing
Ageing is the stage where physical and mental capacities decline, memory fades, and confidence wanes. The UN and WHO define those over 60 as elderly, marking a shift in social roles and reduced active contribution. Nepal’s Senior Citizens Act 2063 classifies those over 60 as senior citizens, including helpless and disabled categories. The 2078 census reports 10.2% elderly (up from 8.13% in 2068).
Provisions for Ageing in Nepal
Constitutional
- Article 41: Special protection and social security for seniors
- Article 43: Social security for the helpless
Legal
- Senior Citizens Act 2063 and Rules 2065: Welfare fund and committee
16th Plan
- Productive employment, dignified labor, sustainable social security
- Gender equality, social justice, inclusive society
Budget
- Social security allowances, health insurance
Institutional
- Ministry of Women, Children, and Senior Citizens
- Social Welfare Council
- Central and district senior citizen welfare committees
- Old age homes, senior citizen clubs, daycare centers
Other
- Concessions, priorities, discounts, quotas
- International Senior Citizens Day (October 1 since 1991)
Problems and Solutions for Ageing
Problems
- Weak implementation of constitutional/legal provisions
- Inadequate budget and poor execution
- Family violence, neglect, and discrimination
- Forced marginalized living
- Underutilization of seniors’ knowledge and skills
- Lack of senior-friendly infrastructure
- Increased state burden due to dependent population
Solutions
- Effective implementation of legal provisions
- Promote positive attitudes toward seniors
- Utilize seniors’ knowledge and skills
- Develop policies ensuring dignity
- Expand social security coverage
- Organize senior clubs and care centers
Conclusion on Ageing
Rising life expectancy has increased Nepal’s elderly population. Constitutional, legal, and institutional frameworks address their needs, but economic, social, and psychological challenges persist. Infectious diseases raise elderly mortality. Leveraging seniors’ knowledge and skills is crucial for SDG 2030 goals, requiring alignment with UN recommendations.
Refugees
Per the 1951 UN Refugee Convention, a refugee is someone fleeing persecution due to race, religion, nationality, social group, or political opinion, unable or unwilling to return to their country. Globally, about 70 million (1% of the population) are refugees.
Conditions for Refugee Status
- Forced to flee to another country
- Inability to return or receive protection in home country
- Fear of persecution based on race, religion, nationality, etc.
- External aggression or public disorder
- Statelessness or voicelessness
- Lack of new nationality
Refugees vs. Immigrants
| Refugees | Immigrants |
|---|---|
|
|
Changing Refugee Norms
- Cold War Era: Encouraged defection, quick asylum grants
- Current: Temporary/subsidiary protection, internal flight alternatives, non-entry policies
Refugees in Nepal
Mainly Bhutanese, Tibetan, and Rohingya refugees. UNHCR estimates 120,000 Bhutanese refugees, with 100,000 resettled in third countries (USA, Canada, Australia, etc.).
Bhutanese Refugees
- Fled 1990s Bhutanese suppression of democracy
- Ethnic Nepali discrimination
- Housed in UNHCR camps
- Failed repatriation efforts
- 100,000 resettled via third-country policy
- Remaining in Jhapa’s Beldangi and Sanischare camps
Tibetan Refugees
- Fled after China’s 1959 Tibet takeover
- 15,000-20,000 in Nepal, housed in Kathmandu and Pokhara
- Post-1989, Nepal facilitates transit to India
Rohingya Refugees
- Muslim community from Myanmar via Bangladesh
- Estimated 1,000 in Kathmandu (no accurate data)
Refugee Rights (UN Convention 1951)
- Non-refoulement (no forced return if life at risk)
- Freedom of movement
- Family life
- Education
- Access to justice
- Employment/self-employment
- Life, health, property, liberty, security
Nepal is not a signatory to the 1951 Convention.
Refugee Issues
- Protection (social security, legal aid)
- Medical problems
- Exploitation
- Financial issues
- Camp management
- Integration/assimilation
- Terrorism, trafficking, criminalization
- Statelessness, discrimination
Nepal’s Position
- Support dignified, safe repatriation
- Third-country resettlement
- Integration into Nepalese society
- Accept refugees to uphold human rights
Refugee Management Arrangements
- UN Charter, UDHR, UNHCR, IOM
- Third-country settlement policy
- Ministries of Home and Foreign Affairs
- UNHCR and IOM offices in Kathmandu
- Bhutanese and Tibetan refugee camps
Refugee Problems and Solutions
Problems
- Rising criminal activities
- Fraudulent citizenship acquisition
- Lack of reliable data
- Strained Nepal-Bhutan relations
- Increased prostitution in camps
- Lack of durable solutions
- Resource strain on state
Solutions
- Accurate data collection
- Resume third-country resettlement
- Provide education
- Engage skilled negotiators
- Enforce laws against camp crimes
- Seek donor assistance
- Create self-employment opportunities
Displaced Population
Displaced populations are groups forced to leave their homes within a country due to political, economic, social, or environmental reasons, such as conflict, human rights violations, or natural disasters. Globally, 68.5 million are displaced (UNHCR, 2018).
Causes of Displacement
- Political conflicts
- Economic, social, cultural issues
- Terrorism
- Ethnic/religious conflicts
- Natural disasters (floods, landslides, earthquakes)
- Armed conflicts (e.g., 78,000 displaced during Maoist conflict)
- Social discrimination and exclusion
- Land encroachment by large development projects
Efforts for Rehabilitation in Nepal
- Constitutional recognition of multicultural Nepal
- Comprehensive Peace Accord (2063 Mangsir 5)
- Proposed Truth and Reconciliation Commission
- Earthquake reconstruction efforts
- National Reconstruction Authority
- 16th Plan for peace and justice
- PM’s Disaster Relief Fund
- National Displacement Policy 2068
- Citizen relief and compensation
- Rehabilitation units
- Rehabilitation of ~25,000 people
Problems and Solutions for Displaced Populations
Problems
- Loss of property, family, community
- Gender-based violence, trafficking
- Unemployment and poverty
- Rising social crimes
- Homelessness
- Limited access to basic services
- Dependence on humanitarian aid
- Psychological issues
Solutions
- Formulate and implement rehabilitation policies
- Accelerate reconstruction efforts
- Expedite Truth and Reconciliation Commission
- Provide education
National Population Policy 2071 Objectives
- Integrate population management with development
- Develop rights-based reproductive health and family planning
- Enhance quality health service delivery
- Manage internal/external migration and urbanization
- Incorporate gender equality and social inclusion
- Strengthen demographic data management
- Promote productive, industry-oriented active population
Challenges of the Policy
- Balancing demographic and development indicators
- Retaining productive workforce domestically
- Promoting reproductive health as a right
- Mitigating natural disaster risks
- Conducting periodic demographic research
- Securing resources for development programs
- Addressing patriarchal structures and marginalization